Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 9th September 2022

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 12th September 2022

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB prices have rallied since my last report. Prices are at the brown down sloping trendline. There is a red horizontal resistance line at 66.618NOK. The indicators have made a big rebound in their displacements vs the price.

I made this point last week, the move in the indicators is much larger than the move in price. I put vertical lines to align price with the indicator displacements to help you see the divergence. The indicators are more oversold at lower prices, this isn’t a sign of strength. In my view, the rally to the current displacement in the Composite Index means we should see more price appreciation but may need to pull back first.

I made a green rectangle from the middle of the move up to the highs. I then made a copy of the green rectangle and made a measurement down from the middle of the move to project a price target. There was a green dashed support line already at this price. I’m not saying prices have to go down to the target from the rectangle but it’s possible. It’s also possible prices break above the brown down sloping trendline and rally. What will be interesting is when the indicators retreat and test the positive crossover of their respective moving averages. The next big test will be how price reacts to the brown down sloping trendline.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction