Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 9th February 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 12th February 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index continues to make higher highs and higher lows. The Oslo FoB Index is testing the green diagonal trendline that has offered support since the beginning of the year.

The 109.98 horizontal resistance zone could also offer some price support in addition to the green diagonal uptrend line. Looking back through the available history of the Oslo FoB Index chart, the 109 NOK to 112 NOK price area has been used as support and resistance.

The Composite Index displacement has dropped down and is testing the positive turnover of its moving averages. This can be a very bullish setup if the Composite Index rebounds to higher displacements. The Composite Index is also at a lower displacement than it was on January 26th, 2024. The previous low in the Oslo FoB Index. Notice that the Oslo FoB Index is at a higher price while the Composite Index is at a lower displacement. The Composite Index is more oversold at higher prices, this is a bullish development. The Composite Index also has history of making changes in trend at this displacement. The most recent high was recorded on February 2nd, 2024. The Oslo FoB Index appears to have made a small move down while the Composite Index has made a much larger displacement change, this is also bullish behaviour.

The RSI continues to operate inside a bullish displacement range. The fast- and slow-moving averages are roped together waiting for the RSI to move. The RSI is at a higher displacement than it was on the previous low on January 26th, 2024. The RSI is diverging with Composite Index. Remember, when we see divergence in the indicators, it’s usually a sign that the current move is losing momentum. The RSI has also used its current displacement as support and resistance.

In summary, there are many bullish characteristics in the Oslo FoB price chart in this week’s update. As we all know, anything can and will happen. All of my bullish comments will lose probability if the green uptrend line is broken, or the 106.28 NOK support zone is breached.

If a person was trading the Oslo FoB Index, this would be a good setup to go long. If the Oslo FoB Index breaks below the green diagonal uptrend line or breaks below the 106.28 NOK, cover your trade. If the Oslo FoB Index rallies, I’d think the 120.18 NOK horizontal resistance line would be a reasonable target. Depending upon your risk tolerances, a long trade could be setup with 1 to 2 NOK at risk while having the possibility of 10 NOK of upside. That is a pretty good risk reward ratio.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction