Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 9th December 2022

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 12th December 2022

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index has moved up the last week. The next level of price resistance is 84.27 NOK as shown on the chart.

The Oslo FoB Index appears to be starting another move higher. If this is the case, you can see the red trend line drawn off the previous price highs for the Index would be a likely target area for an extended move in prices. I drew a black upward sloping trend line from the lows in early November through the most recent lows. An early sign that prices are breaking down would be to break below this uptrend line. The Composite Index is moving higher and looks like its going to test the negative crossover of its moving averages. This is a bearish setup if the Composite Index is repelled by the moving averages.

I’ve written about this setup many times in prior updates. When an indicator tests its positive or negative crossovers of its moving averages and reacts to the crossover, we usually see a very strong move in the price. This negative setup in the Composite Index is a bit less probable because the Index is moving up in price but still worth consideration. The Composite Index did break above the tan down sloping trend line. The RSI is in a similar setup as the Composite Index, moving to test the negative crossover of its moving averages. Both indicators have some history at their current displacements. I’m leaning towards a continued move up in the Index. A break of the black up sloping trend line on price would be an early sign that the trend is weakening and the RSI and Composite Index testing their negative moving average crossover is a bit concerning for the bulls.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction