Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 9th August 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 12th August 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied .08% or .06 NOK during this week of trading. Yes, sideways is a direction. The chart reflects this lack of price movement.

The Oslo FoB Index is bouncing between the two black dashed trendlines. The downward dashed trendline is connect the high near the blue 4 and the green (4) and green (B). The upward black dashed trendline is connecting the two lows near the green (3) and (A). The two trendlines converge in early October 2024. I changed the appearance of these trendlines from prior updates to make it easier to see them on the chart. The purple trendline that connects the past seasonal lows in the available history is also just under current prices and should offer additional support.

The Composite Index has broken above its fast-moving average and appears to be heading to test its fast-moving average. The Composite Index is rallying to test the negative crossover of its moving averages. We’ve covered this in several past updates. This can be an ominous signal if you are looking for higher prices. Notice how far the Composite Index has recently rallied vs the corresponding move in the Oslo FoB Index. The Oslo FoB Index is going sideways while the Composite Index resets to a higher displacement. The Composite Index is becoming more oversold at lower Oslo FoB Index prices. The Composite Index has also used this displacement for support and resistance in its history.

The first thing I noticed when I looked at the Oslo FoB Index chart was the RSI and its relative position to its moving averages. Look back a few months the last time the RSI tested the negative crossover in May of 2024. Wake up and pay attention! It’s like getting a glass of cold water thrown in your face. The good news for the RSI in this situation it is at a much lower displacement vs the same setup in May 2024. The RSI is continuing to operate in a bearish displacement range.

In summary, with the lack of price movement, I don’t have a much of a sharp edge I can bring. The Oslo FoB Index has been consolidating by moving sideways in price for a month or two. There are some bearish signals appearing the indicators. I’m wondering if the 61.xx NOK price target area is still likely, represented by the grey rectangles on the chart. I believe it is still in play. However, in the available history, the Oslo FoB Index has made its seasonal lows in the August and September each year. It’s possible the Oslo FoB Index is targeting the reintroduced pink rectangle price target near 69.48 NOK. The recent lowest price low in the Oslo FoB Index was 72.73 NOK, that might be close enough to 69,48 NOK. The lows appear to happen a few weeks earlier each year, within the available history. Last years low was August 18, 2023. Will this trend continue?

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction