Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 7th October 2022

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 10th October 2022

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB price advance is continuing. Prices appear to be heading towards the 76NOK area.

There is a down sloping moving average heading in this direction and a horizontal resistance level at this price area. The Composite Index is at a high displacement based on its history. It’s slightly above the peak in the index from early September 2022. The RSI index is continuing its steep ascent. The RSI’s current displacement is above where one would expect to find it during a bear market. The divergence between the Composite Index and RSI is growing larger.

Both indicators are near the higher end of their historical displacements. The RSI does have more room to run. The Composite Index can keep going higher but at some point, it will need to reset to a lower displacement. My current thoughts are the Oslo FoB index is moving towards the 76NOK area. Then we should see a retracement that should make a higher low to reset the indicators for a larger price advance.

I included a second chart for your review. It is a weekly chart of the Oslo FoB prices and the weekly Miami FoB prices. The Oslo Fob prices are shown as the bars in the chart. The Miami FoB prices is the green solid line. I was looking to see if one market leads the other in price changes and other correlations. I thought you’d enjoy to seeing the chart.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction