Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 7th February 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 10th February 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index traded down .21% this week to finish the week at 89.92 NOK. The price of the Oslo FoB Index spent the week bouncing around the 87.64 NOK horizontal support zone and near the green upsloping trendline.

I reintroduced the brown upward sloping trendline that should offer additional support if tested. I did not have to make many adjustments to the chart because of the lack of price movement during the week.

The Composite Index is continuing to display bullish divergence. The oscillator is also staying above the sharply ascending grey trendline. This is all usually good news. However, notice how far the Composite Index has rallied without the Oslo FoB Index price rallying. It could be argued that the Composite Index is resetting to a higher displacement level while the Oslo FoB Index trends sideways to setup for another move down. I do not believe this is the case but it’s possible. The purple downward sloping trendline could offer resistance when tested. Notice that the purple and grey trendlines intersect around February 13th, 2025. This intersection “usually” leads to a change or acceleration in trend. The change in trend does not have to be a major high or low.

The RSI appears to have made a W shaped bottom and is currently moving towards a higher displacement level. The next logical resistance zone would be the RSI’s slow green moving average. The RSI could also use the green upward sloping trendline as resistance when tested. The green trendline was used as support and resistance within the history of the data. My main concern with the RSI, that was mentioned in last week’s update, is that the RSI recent displacement low was the lowest displacement it has made while being in a bull market. It raises the concern that the Oslo FoB Index might not be in a bull market. This needs to be monitored closely. The next big test for the RSI is at what displacement level the RSI makes its next displacement high. Will this level be within RSI’s bullish or bearish displacement range? Notice the black dotted upward sloping and the purple downward sloping trendline intersect at the same vertical displacement as the current seasonal high on December 23, 2024, in the RSI pane. Coincidence? Unlikely.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index traded during the week in a close price range. It is still my opinion that the Oslo FoB Index is still in a bullish market. However, there are some concerns to this mentioned in the preceding paragraphs.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction