Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 7th August 2026

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 10th August 2026

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 6.03% during this week of trading to end the week at 69.27 NOK. I refreshed the horizontal dotted support and resistance zones using more recent data.

The Oslo FoB Index used the 73.79 NOK resistance zone and has broken below the red diagonal line originating from last years season price lows and the green uptrend the Index has been using since late June 2026. The Oslo FoB Index is currently testing the top side of the 69.08 NOK support zone. If the Oslo FoB Index can’t hold the 69.03 NOK support zone the next likely price target is 65.03 NOK. In the very short-term time frame, the Oslo FoB Index has made a lower price low. It will be interesting to see the price the Oslo FoB Index uses to stop this price pull back. I’d be surprised if the Oslo FoB Index makes a new price low, below 63.47 NOK but it’s not impossible.

The Composite Index made a relative new displacement high and I don’t see any obvious divergence signals before the Oslo FoB Index price rolled over. This usually means that the price high for this swing isn’t in. It implies the Oslo FoB Index will pullback, let the indicators reset for another move to higher prices. Look at how far the Composite Index displacement has fallen vs the Oslo FoB Index. This is typically more bullish type of behavior. I can argue that there is bullish divergence between the Composite Index and the RSI represented by the newly created solid green lines on the indicators. This signal is over a five or six week time frame. This signal is not as strong and has a higher probibility of failing. The thing I like about this new solid green divergence line is look where this trendline and the dashed green trendlines meet. It signaled the start of the move down in the Composite Index and in the Oslo Fob Index. It would be wise for the reader to look at the Composite Index’s history near its current displacement.

The RSI displacement has also fallen in its displacement relatively more than the Oslo FoB Index has fallen in price. The RSI has used its current displacement for support and resistance within the available history of data. Meaning, the RSI could use this displacement now for support. The RSI’s most recent displacement high is within its bullish operating range. It will be very interesting to see where the RSI puts in its displacement low during this pull back.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is testing a horizontal support zone while displaying a bullish divergence signal. As mentioned earier, this divergence signal has a lower probabily of being successful but it’s there. As mentioned in last week’s update, the evidence of the seasonal price low being in has increased signaifcanlty in the last five or six weeks of trading. If someone were trading the Oslo Fob Index, this would be a time to consider buying the pull back. The seasonal price highs are usually in the 110 NOK to 140 NOK range. From current prices, 110 NOK is 58% gain. $140 NOK is 102% gain from current prices. These are very good returns.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction