Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 6th September 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 9th September 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 4.76% to finish the week at 73.34 NOK. I updated the resistance zones above the Oslo FoB Index using the most recent low as support.

The resistance zones didn’t change much but it was enough to make some minor adjustments. The Oslo FoB Index appears to be respecting the purple trendline the connects last couple of years seasonal low prices. The Oslo FoB Index is currently very close to a horizontal support and resistance zone. The 72.58 NOK price area appears to be more significant than some of the other horizontal zones. At some point the Oslo FoB Index is going to rally, the likely initial targets will be the horizontal resistance zones above the current price. The Oslo FoB Index will also need to break above the black dotted downward sloping trendline that connects the highs from June and July of 2024 to help support the view that the seasonal low prices are in for 2024.

The Composite Index tested and reacted higher after testing the positive crossover of its moving averages. However, the Oslo FoB Index price didn’t have the same type of corresponding move up. It is still concerning to see the large move up in the Composite Index displacement vs the small move in price on the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index is approaching the upper end of its recent displacement range and may need to reset to a lower displacement.

The RSI is testing the same displacement it used for resistance in July 2024. It would be meaningful if the RSI can break above this displacement. The RSI has used the 65 to 60 displacement area as the upper end of its displacement range in bear markets. However, making a higher displacement high would be meaningful. The bigger question is where the RSI will find its next bottom? The RSI uses the 38 to 40 displacement area for support in during bull markets.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index continues to grind along searching for a bottom or the start of the next leg downward. One could argue that the Composite Index is displaying bearish divergence RSI. The Composite Index and the Oslo FoB Index are at lower displacement vs the RSI from the July 17th displacement and price highs. This is represented by the grey downward sloping trendline on the Composite Index and the red horizontal dotted line on the RSI. I’m still of the opinion that the Oslo Fob Index will respect one of the price targets represented by the rectangles on the chart. I also continue to believe the at the Oslo FoB Index will find a seasonal low in the next month, similar what it has done during the available history of the Oslo FoB Index.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction