Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 6th February 2026

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 9th February 2026

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 9.04% during this week of trading to end the week at 99.19 NOK. I made several minor adjustments to the horizontal resistance zones.

The Oslo FoB Index is now testing a “stronger” resistance zone. There are two different methods off finding resistance that show the 99.09 NOK price area as resistance. I mentioned this topic in a previous update. I’d think that this would make this resistance zone more challenging to overcome because there are two independent techniques showing resistance at the same price. There is also a resistance zone at 102.14 NOK that also has a diagonal trendline originating from the price low from July 2025.

The Composite Index is at one of the highest displacements within the history of the data. This is the fourth time the Composite Index has been at this displacement. Two of the four previous occurrences started earlier in the seasonal bullish run. The last time the Composite touched this displacement was in April of 2025 and this turned out to be a rally in a bear market. The Composite Index needs to reset to a lower displacement at some point in time. There is also bearish divergence being displayed in the Composite Index. Look at the thicker light blue trendline connecting the current displacement high with the displacement that formed in early December 2025. The Oslo FoB Index is at a lower price while the Composite Index is at a higher displacement. Notice the green and purple trendlines are also crossing soon. As discussed in many previous updates, when these trendlines cross it give us a clue as to when the price will change, accelerate or indicate the middle of the price swing. Which one is it going to be? The next few trading days will reveal more clues.

The RSI has rallied from the lower end of its displacement range to the higher end of its displacement range for bear markets. Looking back at previous bear markets in the Oslo FoB Index and how the RSI likes to work, this is the third time the RSI has been at this high of a displacement during a bear market. July 2021 and April of 2025 were the other two occurrences. Is it 100% that the Oslo FoB Index is in a bear market and the seasonal price highs are in? Absolutely not but the probabilities favour this outlook currently. The RSI is displaying bearish divergence with the Composite Index.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is testing a “stronger” resistance zone while the Composite Index is displaying bearish divergence and it’s near the higher end of its historical displacement range. There is also signal in the Composite Index suggesting there is a price change or accelerating coming in the next few trading days. These are all suggesting the move up in the Oslo FoB Index is running out of momentum and needs to rest or pull back in price and there is a timing signal rapidly approaching. If I was trading this security, I’d be lightening up on my position seeing these developments.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction