Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 6th December 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 9th December 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo Fob Index rallied 1.83% to finish the week at 88.58 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index held the 86.06 NOK horizontal support line area during this week of trading and bounce off the green dotted upsloping trendline.

The next logical upside target is the 90.91 NOK to 91.20 NOK red horizontal resistance lines. These two red resistance line overlap in the same price area and are derived from different methods. This makes this resistance area a stronger resistance zone. The next horizontal resistance zone that shows confluence between two different methods is near the 105.05 NOK price area.

The Composite Index spent of the week biding time and is at the same horizontal displacement as last week. The next move up will be testing the negative crossover of its moving averages. This can be a bearish signal, but the signal loses strength when the Oslo FoB Index is in an uptrend. The brown trendline is displaying bullish divergence and was adjusted down. The Composite Index is still showing the same bullish signal that was covered in last week’s update.

The RSI is also at the same displacement it was last week and is testing the underside of its fast-moving average. The RSI is continuing to display bullish divergence with the Composite Index, represented by the brown upward sloping trendline in the RSI pane of the chart.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index appears to be winding up for a move to higher prices. I looked back and the Oslo FoB Index tends to rally in the middle of December each year. I’m assuming that this is because of high demand for Salmon during the holiday season. The first sign of trouble for the bulls will be when the Oslo FoB Index breaks below the green dotted uptrend line. If the Oslo FoB Index breaks above the red up trending trendline, it would be a sign the momentum in the Oslo FoB Index is accelerating.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction