Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 5th January 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 8th January 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index spent this week digesting its gains from the prior two weeks with a modest .15% increase in price.

The first thing I noticed in the chart was the green rectangle target was hit and respected by the Oslo FoB Index near the 120.18 NOK resistance zone. I drew in two additional rectangles to project a slightly higher measured move with black rectangles using the same technique as explained in previous updates. The projected high with the black rectangle targets the 125.47 NOK horizontal resistance zone.

The Composite Index has retreated down to test its fast-moving average. Notice the moving averages have a positive displacement, this is bullish. The Composite Index does have history of making highs at its current displacement so the probability of the Composite being able to make a low at this displacement increases. The Composite Index also made another higher high, meaning the price highs for this swing up in the Oslo FoB Index are probably not in. It doesn’t mean the Oslo FoB Index can’t experience a pullback, but the pullback should be corrective.

The RSI is testing its fast-moving average trying find support. The RSI moving averages also have a positive displacement and are still displaying bullish characteristics in its recent displacement history. The RSI has also used its current displacement as a high in its history.

The RSI and the Composite Index are both near the higher end of their historical displacement ranges and at some time they will need to reset to a lower displacement. The big question is, will these two indicators reset to the lower end of their bullish displacement ranges while the Oslo FoB Index price trends sideways? This would be a very bullish development; it implies that the indicators are resetting lower while the Oslo FoB Index corrects sideways in time vs price. It appears that this is what happened during this week of trading. The pullback in the Composite Index and the RSI and larger than the corresponding pullback in the Oslo FoB Index.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction