Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 4th April 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 7th April 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 4.52% to finish the week at 76.56 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index came close the 69.83 NOK horizontal support zone and the purple upward sloping trendline that connects several past seasonal price lows.

The Oslo FoB Index is now testing the 75.79 NOK horizontal resistance zone. The Oslo FoB Index has plenty of room to move to higher prices. The red downward sloping trendline above the current price would offer additional resistance when tested. The trend of lower lows and lower highs continues.

The Composite Index is rallying up to test the negative crossover of its moving averages. This is a bearish setup, especially when the Oslo FoB Index is making lower lows and lower highs. The Composite Index has a little history at its current displacement of making past displacement lows, which means it could be used as resistance for a displacement high. The black trendline drawn from a divergence signal should also offer additional resistance. Notice how big of a move the Composite Index has made up vs the same corresponding move in the price of the Oslo FoB Index. This is typically bearish action. The Composite Index is resetting to higher displacements while the Oslo FoB Index has a modest rally or trends sideways. This usually means Composite Index is rallying to make another move down.

The RSI has also rallied more than the corresponding move in the Oslo FoB Index. The RSI is testing its slow-moving average, and it could be argued that it is testing the negative crossover of it’s moving averages. I mention this signal from time to time over the last four years of writing these updates. What happens to the Oslo FoB Index when the RSI’s moving averages change for a negative displacement to a positive displacement and vice versa? This technique is especially useful if you use the RSI bullish and bearish displacement ranges for guidance. This signal in my opinion is a pretty good signal to give clues about the future intermediate direction of the Oslo FoB Index. The RSI has used the 50-ish to 65-ish displacement range for highs during bear markets. It will be interesting to see at what displacement the RSI uses for its next displacement high.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index has rallied during this week of trading. The Oslo FoB Index can continue to move to higher prices, however, I don’t believe the rally is going to last. This appears to be more of a rally in a bear market. There is always hope for the bulls. The bullish view would be that the Oslo FoB Index could retrace 1/3, 1/2, or 2/3 of it’s previous move down from the highs. The 1/3 retracement is near the 97.00 NOK price area. I would not assign a large probability to this evert.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction