Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 3rd November 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 6th November 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 2.77% in the last week of trading. The Oslo FoB Index is holding above the price moving average in the mid 70’s NOK. The next area of resistance is the 81.16 NOK price. There are several moving averages bunched together near 81.16 NOK which should bring additional resistance for the Oslo FoB Index.

Looking back at the start of the rallies in the fall of 2022 and 2021, after the initial move up from the lows, the Oslo FoB Index retraced 38.2% in 2022. The Oslo FoB Index retraced 62.8% of its initial move up in 2021. As of today, the Oslo FoB Index has retraced 61.8% of the initial move up from the lows. Can the Oslo FoB Index move lower, absolutely. However, history does repeat itself.

The Composite Index has made a large move up vs the small move in prices for the Oslo FoB Index. The timing signal from last weeks report worked on the Composite Index but saw a small move in the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index does have a history of making highs and lows at this displacement. The Composite Index has also rallied to light blue trendline drawn from a previous divergence signal. This light blue trendline can act as support and resistance. The Composite Index is testing this trendline.

The RSI has rallied up to test the negative crossover of its moving averages. This is not a bullish setup. If the RSI is repelled back down from this intersection, the Oslo FoB Index could experience a sharp move lower. We’ve seen big moves in the Oslo FoB Index when the Composite Index or the RSI test their positive or negative crossovers of their moving averages.

I still believe the Oslo FoB Index has put in a low for the season. Any pullback in price should be a corrective move in a bull market. Keep an eye on the RSI and if the markets experience an acceleration in trend lower in the next week. The first clue of a larger move lower would be breaking below the trendline the Oslo FoB Index has been using as support recently, around 77 NOK.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction