Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 3rd May 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 6th May 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 2.4% during this week’s trading. The Oslo FoB Index appears to be heading towards the next horizontal resistance zone at 132.44 NOK.

The Oslo FoB Index is now making higher highs and higher lows since April 24, 2024. The one of the first warnings the uptrend is weakening is when the Oslo FoB Index breaks below the green dotted uptrend line, until then, the uptrend continues. The longer-term trend of higher price highs and higher price lows from August 2023 is also continuing.

The Composite Index is displaying similar characteristics as the March to May 2023 time frame. Notice the displacement high in March of 2023, this is very close to the recent displacement high in the Composite Index. The final price high in 2023 is at the same displacement as the Composite Index’s current displacement. The Composite Index’s displacement at the first lower price high in April 2023 is represented by the black dotted line on the Composite Index. This is a possible displacement target for the Composite Index. Notice the bearish divergence in the Composite Index during the last few days of trading. The Composite Index has not broken into recent displacement highs where the Oslo FoB Index has broken into new recent price highs. It’s possible the Composite Index is forming a M, or double top formation.

The RSI has broken above its slow-moving average which is a sign of strength. The RSI is also at a displacement that it has used as the first lower price high in June of 2022. It will be interesting to see where the RSI puts in its next displacement high vs its previous displacement highs during bull and bear markets.

I was asked if I had any insight to where prices for the Oslo FoB Index might be in the third and fourth quarters of 2024. The blue dotted trendline would be a logical target for the possible future price LOWS if the price continues to behave like prior years. The blue dotted trendline is not much of a target and it’s challenging to assign a likely probability to the target but it’s something to monitor. We looked at the pink trendline as a possible longer-term upside target in one of the updates several months ago. That pink trendline price target worked when recently tested by the Oslo FoB Index.

In summary, we find ourselves in a familiar situation. There are reasons to have a bullish or bearish view of future prices for the Oslo FoB Index. I attached a longer-term view and a shorter-term view of the Oslo FoB Index for your review.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction