Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 3rd March 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 6th March 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index has experienced a volatile week in price. Oslo FoB Index tested the 114.38 NOK support line and the red upsloping trendline.

The Oslo FoB Index appears to be making another run at the 128.90 NOK resistance level. Notice the price highs from April and May of 2022 formed a small M pattern in prices. We might be seeing the same thing developing now in prices. The price move into the highs in April and May of 2022 look similar to the current move in prices. The Composite Index has made a large pull back in its displacement and is currently on a grey upsloping trendline that marked a previous divergence signal in the indicator, usually an area of support. The RSI has also made a large pull back in its displacement.

Notice that the moving averages on the indicators are now converging, a sign the current move is losing momentum. There is divergence between the two indicators shown with two purple trendlines, usually a bullish signal. The Composite Index is showing another bullish signal. The Composite Index’s current displacement is lower than its last low while the price of the Oslo FoB Index is higher, the purple trend line on the Composite Index. The Composite Index is more oversold at higher prices. This is usually a bullish signal. There is conflicting signs in the data and I’m thinking the Oslo FoB Index can continue to move higher but the strength of the move is weakening.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction