Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 31st July 2026

John Ersser - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 3rd August 2026

This Article was Written by: John Ersser

  

The Oslo Fob Index rallied 3.78% to finish the week at 73.72 NOK. I made adjustments to the red dashed resistance zones using the most recent price lows.

There are two separate resistance zones close to each other at 73.78 NOK and 76.05 NOK. There is a green support line at 72.95 NOK that is not displayed on the chart. I didn’t want to display a support and resistance line so close to each other on the chart.

The Oslo FoB Index accelerated away from the solid green trendline it’s been using for support since June 29th. The Oslo FoB Index also rallied above the red trendline, originating from last year’s seasonal price low. The Oslo FoB Index is testing the underside of the 73.78 NOK resistance zone.

The Composite Index continues to rally. Like the Oslo FoB Index, the Composite Index continues to make higher price highs and higher price lows. I put a brown dashed horizonal trendline at the Composite Index’s fast moving average current displacement. The reader should go back and look and see how many times the red moving average has been at this displacement and what follows. Also notice the large spread between the fast- and slow-moving averages. The spread is about as big as it gets within the available data. This implies that the spread between the moving averages will converge. The Composite Index usually moves to lower displacements before the moving averages start to converge. I am not seeing any bearish divergence in the Composite Index currently.

The RSI has made a remarkable move in its displacement since the June 29th price low. The RSI’s current displacement is operating within a bullish displacement range. Each week I put a red dotted trendline at the RSI and Composite Index’s current displacement. Has the RSI ever been at this displacement during a bear market within the available data? The short answer is during the previous times the RSI was at this displacement was all during bull markets for the Oslo FoB Index, within the available history of data. This raises the probability the June 29th, 2026, price low is the seasonal price low for 2026. It’s still a little early to make the call that the seasonal price lows are in, but the probably is raising. The big question is at what displacement will the RSI use for support during the next price pullback? Will this displacement be in a bullish or bearish zone?

In summary, the probability of the Oslo FoB Index putting in its seasonal price low has increased significantly during the last week of trading. The indicators will need to reset to lower displacements to fuel future price rallies at some point in time. I’ve been suggesting that the indicators will need to reset in recent updates. As you can see from previous years, even after the seasonal price lows are in, that doesn’t mean the Index goes up every day and every week. This is where trend recognition helps. The Oslo FoB Index is making higher price highs and higher price lows. I am reintroducing the price targets for possible seasonal price highs. These trendlines, solid pink and dashed black trendline, connect prior years price highs. I would look at these price targets as more of a general price target, not exact. The next few weeks of trading will be very interesting for the Oslo FoB Index.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction