Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 2nd September 2022

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 5th September 2022

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

Oslo FoB prices have had a nice rally this week. Prices broke above the grey upsloping trend line, the red dashed horizontal resistance line and the price moving average. Where are prices going?

There are several red dashed horizontal resistance zones and the brown down sloping trend line are good targets in the short term. The Composite Index has also rallied through the green down sloping trend line that has proved to be resistance for the indicator since April. The Composite Index is now near the higher end of its historical displacement and there is some history at this displacement although it looks like the Composite Index can keep advancing. I put a green dotted horizontal line to help your eye track what has happened at this displacement in the past. The RSI Index has also rallied through the two green horizontal resistance lines we’ve been tracking for the last month and through its two moving averages. The RSI also has history at this displacement.

Is the down trend over? There is some reason for concern. For example, look at the brown vertical line near the last peak in prices in July. Look at where prices and indicators were then and now, notice that the indicators are higher displacements with lower prices. The indicators are more “overbought” when prices are lower. This is not a sign of strength. The good news is the moving averages are converging for the indicators and I believe the next big move for prices will be when the indicators come down to test this positive crossover.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction