Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 29th July 2022

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 1st August 2022

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB prices are trying to hold the black upsloping diagonal trend line. There is also a green horizontal support zone just below current price.

Regarding these diagonal upward and downward sloping trend lines, don’t draw these with a “razor fine” line, it’s more of a “thicker” line. Meaning, the small break below the trend line isn’t a major violation. The lower indicator is bouncing up from it’s lowest displacement in the history of the available data. I’m expecting a bounce in prices back up the brown downward sloping trendline. I see some divergence between the two indicators. The lower indicator is heading to the closest green horizontal line above its current displacement.

Both markets have a similar setup for the bulls if you are trading these markets. This looks like a possible area to go long. For example, for the Oslo FoB prices, put a stop order under the support zone at 69.07NOK. If prices bounce, it’s reasonable to see prices go back the brown down sloping trending line. Risking 3NOK while trying to make $10NOK. Seems like a reasonable risk / reward ratio in my humble opinion.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction