Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 28th March 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 31st March 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 13.22% during this week of trading to end the week at 73.25 NOK. The black upward sloping trendline failed, the Oslo FoB Index fell through several horizontal support lines during this week of trading.

This is not typical action in a bull market. The trend of lower lows and lower highs is continuing. It’s so obvious now that I even see it! The next horizontal support zone is at 69.89 NOK. There is also a upward sloping purple trendline that connects previous year’s seasonal price lows, this trendline should offer additional support.

The Composite Index displacement has fallen to the lower end of its displacement range within the available history. The Composite Index does have a history of making lows at its current displacement. The Composite Index also has room to move to a lower displacement. The Composite Index has only been at this displacement twelve times within the available history. I’d suggest going back and look at how the Oslo FoB Index reacts during these displacement levels in the Composite Index. The Composite Index will need reset to higher displacements at some point in time.

The RSI is operating within bearish displacement range. The RSI is also at a very low displacement within the available history. This is the fourth time the RSI has been near this displacement zone. Like the Composite Index, the RSI will need to reset to higher displacement at some point in time.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is making lower price lows and lower price highs. The next support zone is near 69.83 NOK. There is some bullish divergence in the Composite Index but the strength of the signal is questionable. I am currently not seeing a strong bullish divergence signal within the chart. Both indicators are very oversold and will need to reset back to higher displacement. As usual, there is some bearish and bullish data within the chart.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction