Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 28th August 2026

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 1st September 2026

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 3.33% during trading this week to end the week at 65.35 NOK. I made a few changes to the price chart this week.

I eliminated the green upward sloping trendline that connected the price lows late June to early August 2026 and added the 67.04 NOK horizontal resistance zone.

The Oslo FoB Index is close to the 64.91 NOK horizontal support zone and the lower red downward sloping trendline. These could offer price support for the Oslo FoB Index. The Oslo FoB Index did find support near the 66.70 NOK price area mentioned in last weeks update. However, it appears that the move down is extending and the next logical price target is near the 64.91 NOK support zone. I’d prefer not to get too deep in the water regarding Elliott Waves and how to count them, but I can count five waves down from the price high on August 14, 2026. Usually after a five wave move up or down, you’d expect to see some type of retracement in the asset being observed.

The Composite Index has retraced all the way down the lower extremes of its displacement range history. This implies the Composite Index will rally, generally this means the Oslo FoB Index could also rally. I’m also seeing bullish divergence between Wednesday and Friday of this week. The Composite Index has not made a lower displacement low while the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI have made lower price and displacement lows. This means the move down is losing momentum, it doesn’t mean that the Oslo FoB Index will turn around and rally from here, but it’s a clue that it’s possible.

The RSI action is a bit confusing. In the July 31, 2026, update I mentioned that the displacement for the RSI was near 75. Within the available history of data, the Oslo FoB Index had never been in a bear market while at this displacement. Today the RSI is at a displacement it’s never been at while the Oslo FoB Index was in a bull market. This is very unusual behavior for the RSI. The RSI is testing the same displace that the RSI used for the Oslo FoB Index price low on June 29, 2026, meaning the RSI can use this displacement to turn higher again. The RSI displacement is also near the lower end of its displacement range implying the RSI will need to rally to reset.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index seasonal price lows being in for 2026 have come into doubt with the action in the RSI. It’s still possible but the probability has decreased. The Oslo FoB Index is currently testing the lower red downward sloping trendline and the green horizontal support zone while the Composite Index is displaying bullish divergence. I’m still of the opinion that if a person was trading the Oslo FoB Index the investor should be buying the Oslo FoB Index and looking to sell it in five to eight months in the 110 NOK to 140 NOK price area. However, with the action of the RSI, this would not be a place I’d go “all in” if I was trading the Oslo FoB Index.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction