Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 27th September 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 30th September 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 3.24% during this week of trading to finish at 69.56 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index also made a new price low.

The Oslo FoB Index is now testing the horizontal price support line at 69.56 NOK and the purple trendline that connects the season prices lows in the available data. I believe this is a stronger support zone with three independent support techniques overlapping near the same price. The third technique is the pink rectangle used to project a future possible price bottom discussed in detail in an update from several months ago. The Oslo FoB Index price breaking above the blue downward sloping trendline would increase the probability that the prices low for the Oslo FoB Index might be in.

The Composite Index is now near the lower end of its displacement range. The Composite Index has history near this displacement for making turns towards higher displacements. The moving averages for the Composite Index now have a negative displacement and any rally in the indicator will be rallying to test the negative crossover. On a bullish note, the Composite Index has retraced from a higher historical displacement to a lower historical displacement without a corresponding move lower in the Oslo FoB Index. There is a downward sloping grey trendline and an upward sloping green trendline drawn on the Composite Index. I’ve mentioned in previous updates that when these trendlines, drawn from divergence signals, cross they usually signal a price trend change in the Oslo FoB Index. The challenge is some of these signals are stronger than others. Meaning, the signal could be a significant turn or a minor turn in prices. The crossover date is near October 8th, 2024.

The RSI is holding the 35-displacement zone during this recent price pullback in the Oslo FoB Index. This is an important development. Go back and look at the low displacements the RSI has put in while the Oslo FoB Index was trending higher. The RSI just tested and held the lowest displacement during an uptrend from November of 2022. It’s my opinion that if the RSI can’t stay above the 35-displacement zone the downtrend in the Oslo FoB Index is still underway.

In summary, I still believe the Oslo FoB Index is searching for a seasonal price low. Notice there is still a bullish divergence signal between the Composite Index and the RSI while the Oslo FoB Index is testing a support zone backed up three separate methods. Represented by the purple downward sloping trendline on the Composite Index and the upward sloping black trendline on the RSI. Can the Oslo FoB Index continue to lower prices? Absolutely. The next couple of weeks should be interesting for the Oslo FoB Index.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction