Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 27th December 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 30th December 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 13.95% to finish this week of trading at 131.80 NOK. Wednesday December 18th started this impressive rally. The Oslo FoB Index is up 60.25% in nine calendar days.

The Oslo FoB Index can’t sustain this kind of price movement forever. However, it is also unwise to short a flagpole.

I reworked the horizontal support and resistance zones in the chart. There are three independent resistance zones between 134.66 NOK and 140.59 NOK. I would think that these three resistance zones will be more challenging to overcome. I’m a little surprised that a resistance zone didn’t appear around the price highs from May of 2024. Remember the pink upward sloping trendlines that connects the price highs from 2022, 2023 and 2024? This pink trendline is a logical target for the Oslo FoB Index’s approximate ultimate seasonal price high for 2025.

The Composite Index has rallied to the higher end of its historical displacement range. It is also displaying bearish divergence. The black trendline that connects the high displacements over 110. This black trendline should offer some additional resistance for the Composite Index.

The RSI is also at the higher end of its historical displacement range. There is a black upward sloping trendline that connects four displacement highs in the RSI. This black trendline should offer additional resistance if tested. The RSI is continuing to operate in a bullish displacement range.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index has had an incredible nine days of price appreciation. The bearish view is the indicators are at the higher end of their historical price range. The Composite Index is testing the underside of a trendline that has previously stopped one other rally and is displaying some bearish divergence. The RSI is also near the higher end of its historical displacement range. Both indicators have history of making displacement highs at their current displacements. The bullish case for the Oslo FoB Index is the price is not at a horizontal resistance zone. The Composite Index and the RSI are not showing bearish divergence from their most recent previous displacement high and today. Both indicators have made higher displacement highs in their history. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sharp pull back in the Oslo FoB Index price in the upcoming weeks of trading, but the Index can also keep going higher. I don’t believe this price high when it comes will mark the seasonal price highs for 2025.

Happy New Year to you and your families.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction