Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 26th March 2026

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 30th March 2026

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 3.55% during this week of trading to end the week at 90.11 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index broke below the diagonal upward sloping trendline that originates from the July 2025 seasonal price lows.

The Oslo FoB Index has also broken below the 91.06 NOK horizontal support zone, at the same time, these trendlines should not be drawn with a razor fine line. Occasionally, it’s better to draw these lines with a more forgiving wider line. The Oslo FoB Index could also use the price high near the blue 1 as support along with 86.29 NOK. The 86.29 NOK price area is also a confluence zone of price support. The swing from the price high near the blue 5 down to the blue A is the same distance as from the blue B down to the blue C. This move down to C is also right on top of the 86.29 NOK horizontal support zone. Is this coincidence? Unlikely. When you get several different methods suggesting the same price target, it raises the probability that is the price target.

The Composite Index has fallen to the lower end of its displacement range. It can certainly keep going down to lower displacements and at the same time, the Oslo FoB Index has used this displacement twice as support in 2026. The Composite Index appears to be riding the brown trend line down. I changed the colour of this trendline vs last week’s update to help make the trendline easier to see for the reader. This brown downward sloping trendline is displaying a bullish signal for the Oslo FoB Index. Notice that the moving averages for both the RSI and the Composite index are rapidly moving to a negative displacement. There are two different trendlines displayed on the Composite Index pane that are crossing on Friday March 27th, 2026, plus or minus a day or two. These intersections usually correspond with a change or acceleration in price of the Oslo FoB Index.

The RSI has used this displacement as support and resistance within the available history of data. The RSI is also showing the same bullish signal as the Composite Index via the brown trendline that starts on March 4, 2026. The RSI is operating within a bearish displacement range.

The time target I mentioned in last week’s update that was displaying a signal that there was going to be a change or acceleration in price earlier this week. This signal corresponded with the start of the swing down at the blue B on the price chart.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is near a horizontal support zone. The indicators are displaying a bullish signal and have reset from their previous displacement highs. There is also a time target approaching soon. I’ve also notice through the years that the Oslo FoB Index appears to rally during the Christmas and Easter holiday seasons. Easter is next Sunday April 5th. There is some evidence suggesting that the Oslo FoB Index could rally next week. However, I would not assign a larger than normal probability to this view at this time.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction