Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 26th June 2026

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 29th June 2026

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell .49% during this week of trading to end the week at 64.71 NOK.   The Oslo FoB Index has been riding the brown downward sloping trendline since early June.

There is a horizontal support zone at 64.74 NOK that could be catching the Oslo FoB Index for a possible price rally.   I updated some of the horizontal resistance zones on the price chart.   The price trend of lower price highs and lower price lows is continuing.   I still believe the Oslo FoB Index is going to test the 60.85 NOK horizontal support zone at some point in time during this seasonal price pull back.   There are two trendlines that intersect near this price.

In the past few years, I’ve been requested to give my best guess at the seasonal price lows.  I’ve used a technique to measure for the final bottom by measuring from what I believe is the middle of the move down.   This price measurement measures to 59.12 NOK.  Another item pointing to a similar price area of 60.85 NOK.   It’s certainly possible the price downtrend extends bringing in lower price targets.   We’ll deal with that issue if prices go below 59 NOK.

The Composite Index appears to be starting to move higher after touching the green dashed line appears.  This trendline has marked bullish divergence in the Composite Index vs the Oslo FoB Index.   It’s doing the same thing currently; the Composite Index is displaying a bullish divergence signal.  The Composite Index is making a higher low vs the Oslo FoB Index price is making a lower price low.   This is a sign this portion of the downtrend is losing momentum.   The solid green upward sloping trendline is intersecting the brown downward sloping trendline on July 1st, plus or minus a day or two.   This could be a clue to a coming change or acceleration in price.

The RSI is diverging with the Composite Index.  This is also considered bullish divergence.   I added a purple dashed trendline to help the reader see the divergence.   The RSI is testing the underside of its slow-moving average; this can act as resistance.  The RSI has been using its slow-moving average for resistance since the end of May.   The RSI has recent history of using this displacement as resistance, meaning it can use this displacement again as resistance.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index continues to make lower price lows and lower price highs.   At some point, this will change but for now, don’t fight the trend.   There are clues that the Oslo FoB Index could attempt a price rally.  The indicators are towards the lower end of their historical displacement ranges and will reset to higher displacements.  There is some evidence that a change or acceleration in prices could be coming next week.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction