Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 26th August 2022

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 29th August 2022

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB prices have continued to fall this week. Prices seem to have found some support at the 58.40NOK price zone.

Prices have broken down through the grey up sloping trend line. You can see the other horizonal dashed support lines below the current price. I’m seeing divergence between the two indicators represented by the small purple trendlines on the indicators.

Looking back in history in the Composite Index, there has been some reactions at this displacement while forming a W bottoms. The RSI is now testing its previous all-time low from below.

Miami vs Oslo

What stands out to me is the divergence between the retracement in prices from prior bullish moves in the Oslo NOK prices vs the Miami FoB prices. Miami FOB prices have retraced about 38.2% of the total gains from November of 2019. The Oslo FoB prices have retraced a much larger percentage of it’s gains. The exact numbers are not important, it’s the divergence in the degree of decline.

Why is this happening? Does one market lead the other? Does the home currency make a significant difference? All kinds of questions to consider. I attached a chart for your review. The Miami FoB prices are a weekly chart timeframe. To compare both markets, I changed the Oslo FoB data to a weekly time frame from a daily time frame. Miami FoB prices are in blue and the Oslo FoB prices are in green.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction