Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 25th October 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 28th October 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 1.59% to end the week at 75.64 NOK. During the last two weeks of trading the Oslo FoB Index has been trading between 75 NOK and 77 NOK digesting its recent price gains.

The Oslo FoB Index is continuing to use the 76.98 and the black dashed downward sloping trendline as resistance. The red downward sloping trendline that connects the price highs from April and May of 2024 is also approaching. The only updating I did to the chart this week was to input the daily price changes. I do not see any reasons to adjust my prior chart work.

The Composite Index has made a much larger decline in its displacement vs the same corresponding move in the Oslo FoB Index. This is generally bullish behaviour. The Composite Index is becoming more oversold at higher prices. The Composite Index does have history of making turns at this displacement. When looking at the last two years seasonal lows, the Composite Index has used this displacement area as support after the pull back from the first seasonal rally.

The RSI has broken down through its fast-moving average and used the fast-moving average as resistance during this week of trading. The RSI used its current displacement as resistance in mid-September 2024, meaning it’s possible the RSI uses this displacement as support. I would expect the RSI to find a displacement bottom at or above the 38 to 40 displacements. The RSI could also find support at its slow-moving average.

In summary, I’m still believe the Oslo FoB Index is making its seasonal lows for the year. In October of each year, in the available history the Oslo FoB Index, the Oslo FoB Index does appear to have a modest pull back in price after its first initial rally from its seasonal lows. This trend has continued until mid-November of each year. It’s very possible this is what are now experiencing in the Oslo FoB Index. This week’s update is short with the continued lack of price movement. Keep in mind that the indicators are resetting lower while the Oslo FoB Index price stays relatively unchanged and it appears the Oslo FoB Index likes to pull back from mid-October to mid-November.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction