Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 25th August 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 29th August 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Olso FoB Index rallied 1.12% to end the week of August 25th, 2023. The Oslo FoB Index did break above the steep tan down sloping trendline.

The Oslo Fob Index appears to have found support just above the 69.04 NOK horizontal support zone and the measured move target represented by the pink rectangles. The blue and green down sloping trendlines should offer support for the Oslo FoB Index if tested. I drew in a black upward sloping trendline that connects the price lows from September 2021 and August 2022. The black trendline is relatively flat and is the low 60’s NOK currently. This is another target for the final bottom for the Oslo FoB Index.

The Composite Index has made a large move up compared to the Oslo FoB Index price move. The Composite Index last Friday was touching the green upsloping trendline. It is now testing the underside of the purple trendline which should offer resistance. The Composite Index does have a history of making turns near this displacement. Notice the moving averages on the Composite Index will have a positive displacement soon.

The RSI has broken above its fast-moving average. The Composite Index has broken above and is now testing, from above, a displacement that it has used in the past for support and resistance. The RSI continues to range in bearish displacements. The RSI needs to get above and hold the 35 to 40 displacements for the next rally to start and continue.

As usual, there are some bullish and bearish issues for the Oslo FoB Index. The issue that concerns me for the bulls is the large move up in the Composite Index displacement with little or no movement in the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index displacement is making a higher high, while the Oslo FoB Index is making a lower high. This is not a bullish setup. The Composite Index is more oversold at lower prices. The price target for this setup is 66.12 NOK. I would not put much weight into the 66.12 NOK price target, it’s the Composite Index being over sold at lower prices that is concerning for the bulls.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction