Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 24th July 2026

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 27th July 2026

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 5% to end the week of trading at 71.03 NOK. I made some adjustments to the red horizontal price resistance zones on the chart.

There are three resistance zones relatively close to each other between 71.24 NOK and 76.05 NOK.

The Oslo FoB Index has been making higher price highs and higher price lows since breaking above the brown downward sloping trendline around June 30, 2026. The Oslo FoB Index is currently testing the underside of the 71.24 NOK resistance zone and the red upward sloping trendline that originates at last year’s price low. This red trendline was used as resistance by the Oslo FoB Index in mid-June 2026. It can be respected again. The Oslo FoB Index has been using the green upward sloping trendline as support since this price rally started on June 30th. The current uptrend is still in force until this green trendline is broken.

The Composite Index is displaying bearish divergence vs the Oslo FoB Index. The Oslo FoB Index continues to make higher price highs. The Composite Index stopped making higher displacement highs. The Composite Index is testing its fast-moving average which could offer support. The Composite Index is getting close to the upper end of its displacement range history but still has some room to keep going if needed. The Composite Index has used this displacement area as resistance within the available history. Notice the spread between the two moving averages. The spread between the moving averages is wider than normal, implying that the spread will need to converge.

The first thing I noticed looking at the chart was the RSI displacement. It’s getting near the higher extreme displacement for being in a bear market. It will be very interesting to see what displacement the RSI uses for support during the next pull back. The RSI has used this displacement as resistance as recently as March 2026.

I included a second chart to the update this week. This is a weekly view of the Oslo FoB Index. Each bar on the chart represents one entire week of trading history. The main point of showing the reader this chart is the spread between the moving averages for the RSI. The spread between the moving averages is wide and the RSI is moving to higher displacements, meaning the moving averages will start to converge. I’d suggest going back and look at the spread between the moving averages on the RSI during previous yearly seasonal price lows and compare it to what you see today.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index uptrend is continuing. Like last week’s update, there is bullish and bearish developments within the chart. The seasonal price lows have been coming in earlier each year, except for 2024. Last year’s price low was on July 29th. It’s possible the price low on June 29 is the seasonal price low but it’s too early to be making that decision. The displacement the RSI uses for its next pull back will give some insight on this issue. The Oslo FoB Index is testing the underside of the green upsloping trendline originating from last year’s price low. It’s also testing the 71.24 NOK horizontal resistance zone, and the Composite Index is displaying bearish divergence. This is not the place I would be going all in on the Oslo FoB Index if I was a trading this Index. However, I’m very interested in observing the next pull back in price.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction