Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 23rd September 2022

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 26th September 2022

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB market has also continued is sideways price movement. Prices have been trapped above the brown down sloping line, the grey up sloping trend line and below the red price moving.

As long as the price can stay above the grey upsloping trend line there is hope for the bulls. The Composite Index is in a steep decline and has retraced much of it’s move up while prices have moved very little in comparison, this is usually bullish. The RSI is testing its fast-moving average from underneath. Both indicators have history at their current displacements. Which way are prices going? A break of the grey up sloping trendline would be an early clue prices are heading lower into the mid 50’s NOK.

If prices can break above the red price moving average to the upside, this would be an early clue that prices are moving higher. If the Composite Index can break above the grey down sloping trend line, that would also give an early clue for the bulls. Taking a step back and looking at the longer-term view, as always, the trend is your friend. The price target measured by the light green rectangle from the middle of the move is still very much in play if prices start moving down. I used three different methods to find these targets and each method has a price target in the low 40’sNOK to high 30’sNOK. When you get several techniques pointing at the same target, it raises the probability of that target.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction