Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 23rd February 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 26th February 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied a modest 0.89% in this week of trading. The Oslo FoB Index is continuing its pattern of making higher highs and higher lows.

The Oslo FoB Index is still using the green uptrend line as support. I updated the green horizontal support zones on the chart. The Oslo FoB Index is attempting to break out of the base it has been in since early January of 2024. If the Oslo FoB Index can break above this current base the expectations for a target price for the Oslo FoB Index would be in 150 NOK area. There are no time targets provided with this technique and certainly no guarantees the price has to rally to the 150 NOK price area. Notice the pink trendline connecting the 2022 and 2023 highs are also in 140 to 150 NOK range.

The Composite Index is still showing some bearish divergence, the same signal from last weeks update. The Composite Index has recently used this displacement as support on January 25th 2024, so it can be used again as support.

The RSI is testing the positive crossover of its moving averages while operating in a bullish displacement range. This can be a very bullish signal for the Oslo FoB Index if the RSI can continue to move higher.

This week’s update is shorter this week because I don’t see many things that need to be updated. The chart for the Oslo FoB Index still looks like it can rally to higher prices. Breaking below the green diagonal support line or above the red diagonal resistance line would be a sign the momentum is changing. My main concern for the bulls in the Oslo FoB Index is in viewing the available trading history of the Oslo FoB Index. The Oslo FoB Index appears to put seasonal high prices in March, April, or May of each year. Price highs were made in May of 2021, April of 2022, and March of 2023. It’s challenging to draw hard conclusions with only three years of trading history available on the chart, but it is on the chart.

On a side note, if a person did participate in the trade setup from the 2.9.24 update, the target price has been hit and this person should have sold out their position in the 120 NOK price area.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction