Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 22nd September 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 25th September 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index ended this week of trading at 80.02 NOK. The next horizontal resistance zone is at 82.31 NOK and there is also a price moving average near the 82.31 NOK price area to offer additional resistance.

The Oslo FoB Index broke above the red down sloping trendline. The trend of higher highs and higher lows is continuing. I added a blue down sloping trendline that connects the last three price highs in the Oslo FoB Index. This blue trendline should offer resistance when tested.

The Composite Index retreated during the week and bounced back up off of its slow-moving average. The Composite Index is now testing the underside of its fast-moving average. The Composite Index does have a little bit of a history of making turns at its current displacement. Notice the divergence between the Composite Index and the Olso FoB Index and the RSI. The Composite Index has not made a higher high recently while the Oslo Fob Index and the RSI did make higher highs. This would be more concerning if the Oslo FoB Index was testing the 82.31 NOK resistance zone.

The RSI rally is continuing. The RSI now has a displacement of 66. The RSI has broken above the displacements it has used as resistance during the decline since April 2023. This is an important development. It will be interesting to see at what displacement the RSI makes its next low at during the next pullback. The RSI usually holds the 36 or higher displacement during rallies in the Oslo FoB Index.

It looks more and more likely that the lows for the Oslo FoB Index could be in. Do you remember the measured move price targets from previous updates shown with different coloured rectangles for the Oslo FoB Index? Both of those targets have been realized. There is the black trendline near 63 NOK that connects the 2021 and 2022 price lows. This target it not a high probability target but is still in play.

If the lows for the Oslo FoB Index are in, what would be a possible target? I drew in a red trendline connecting the price highs from April of 2022 and March of 2023. The red trendlines current displacement is near 140 NOK. .This is not a high probability target, like the black upsloping trendline, but it is still in play.

I added a second chart to the update this week. It is a zoomed in view of the Olso FoB Index to help the reader see some of the finer details in the chart.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction