Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 22nd November 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 25th November 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 3.6% during this week of trading to finish the week at 89.80 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index is rapidly approaching the 90.91 NOK resistance zone that is a confluence of resistance zones discussed in previous updates.

This usually means this will be a “stronger” resistance zone. I put a Fibonacci grid into this week’s chart. I measured the distance from the green (C) to the blue 1. I then moved that measurement up to the blue 2. The Fibonacci grid also shows expansion prices. Does this grid work within the prices inside the chart? It does, meaning the projected targets should be respected. The grid is showing 89.75 NOK as a resistance target. The 89.75 is twice the distance between the green (C) and the blue 1 and is near the 90.91 NOK resistance zone.

The Composite Index is displaying more bearish divergence during this week of trading. The Composite is going lower while the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI continue to move higher. The black and red downward sloping trendlines display the bearish divergence in the Composite Index pane. The Composite Index is at a higher historical displacement level and will need to reset. The moving averages have a positive displacement, and the Composite Index appears to have pulled back, tested, and bounced up from its fast-moving average.

The RSI continues to move higher. The RSI does have some history at this displacement. The high in November 2022 and the M formation in February of 2023. Notice that these were not the final price highs for the Oslo FoB Index but did signal a pull back in price for the Oslo FoB Index. The RSI is continuing to follow the black upward sloping trendline and is currently testing the underside of this trendline. Notice the width of the spread between the fast- and slow-moving averages. This spread is getting to be about as big as it historically gets, meaning the RSI will need to reset to lower displacement levels.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index trend of making higher highs and higher lows is continuing. There appears to be a good amount of resistance around the 90 NOK price area. The indicators are at the higher end of their historical displacement ranges and are diverging. I can easily count a 5 wave move up from the blue 2 to the Oslo FoB Index’s current price. I’m not saying the final price highs are in, but the Oslo FoB Index appears it needs to rest or a pullback in price to reset. The green upward sloping trendline that connects two recent price highs could offer additional support during a pull back.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction