Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 21st March 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 24th March 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 2.44% during this week of trading to end the week at 84.412 NOK. This has been another week of quiet trading in the Oslo FoB Index.

This is another week where I’ve had to make little or no changes to the chart. The Oslo FoB Index tested the 88.40 NOK resistance zone and failed. It has also broken below the black upward sloping trendline and appears to be heading towards the 84.03 NOK horizontal support zone. I added a red downward sloping trendline that connects the last three price highs. This trendline should offer resistance when tested. In a previous update, I mentioned the possibility of a head and shoulders top forming in the price chart. This setup is still very much in play.

The Composite Index rallied up and tested the green downward sloping trendline and failed. The good news for the bulls is that the Composite Index is heading down to test the positive crossover of its moving averages. This can be a very bullish setup if the Composite Index bounces upward after the test. The Composite Index does have a modest amount of trading history near its current displacement.

The RSI peaked near the 51 displacement during this week of trading. This is the same displacement that stopped the RSI on February 24, 2025. The RSI is operating more in the bearish displacement range vs it’s bullish displacement range in my humble opinion. The RSI is testing or is just below the positive cross over of its moving averages. This can also be a very bullish setup if the RSI can react and move higher. The RSI does have history at its current displacement. It will be interesting to see the displacement the RSI uses for support during this pull back. I’ve mentioned this in previous updates, within the history of the available data, when the moving averages on the RSI turn to a positive displacement this usually leads to higher Oslo FoB Index prices.

In summary, this update is brief with the lack of price movement in the Oslo FoB Index. A few things to watch for during the next week of trading; does the Composite Index test and react to the positive crossover of its moving averages; at what displacement does the RSI bounce and react higher; will the RSI react while testing the positive crossover of its moving averages; will the 84.03 NOK horizontal support line hold? One of the first signs the market could be moving to higher prices would be breaking above the red downward sloping trendline.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction