Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 20th September 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 23rd September 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 3.13% during this week of trading to finish the week at 71.89 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index is now slightly below the 72.58 horizontal support zone.

The next support zone is at 69.56 NOK. 69.56 NOK also has the purple trendline that connects the prior year’s price lows nearby. For several weeks in a row, I have not made many adjustments to the previous weeks chart included in this update. This week is another example of the lack of price movement and really very little is needed to adjust in the chart.

The Composite Index made a small divergence signal early this week and has made a much larger drop in its displacement vs the same corresponding move in the Oslo FoB Index. The recent low trade in the Oslo FoB Index was August 30th, 2024. Notice the Composite Index is currently at a lower displacement than its displacement on August 30th. The Composite Index is more oversold at higher prices. This is bullish. The Composite Index’s moving averages are starting to converge meaning it may need some time to reset. The Composite Index is also trading below both of its moving averages.

The RSI appears to be holding its slow-moving average. The RSI also appears to be curling backward up near the 40-displacement level. The RSI has used the 37 to 40 displacement range as support during rallies in its history. Every week I put a horizontal dotted red line at the displacement the indicators finish the week. Look at the displacement zone range the RSI used during last year’s rally for both resistance and support. If the RSI can hold the 38 to 40 displacement areas, it’s a sign that any pull backs in price should be bought in the Oslo FoB Index. Notice the RSI has the same bullish signal mentioned in the paragraph about the Composite Index. The RSI is at a lower displacement while the Oslo FoB Index is at higher price. The RSI is more oversold at higher prices.

In summary, this is another brief update. There has been very little price movement in the Oslo FoB Index during the last 2 months of trading. This makes it a bit more challenging to provide you an edge on what the expect in the Oslo FoB Index. This week the key is to watch the RSI displacement closely to see if it can hold the 37 to 40 displacement zone during this pull back in the Oslo FoB Index.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction