Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 20th December 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 23rd December 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 24.97% this week to finish the week at 115.67 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index went from 83.13 NOK to 115.67 NOK, a 39.15% rally in one day, from Thursday December 19 to Friday December 20, 2024.

The Oslo FoB Index is a very dynamic market during the holiday season, like previous years. I updated the support and resistance zones because of the significant move during this week in trading. The two horizontal pink support lines, below the Oslo FoB Index current price, are support zones with confluence of support from several different techniques. In theory, these areas should be zones of stronger support. Looking back at previous years history during the month of December, this isn’t unusual behaviour for the Oslo FoB Index. The Oslo FoB Index does appear to have sharp pull back in price once this swing up ends.

The Composite Index is displaying bearish divergence vs the RSI and the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index is at a lower displacement vs it’s previous displacement high while the RSI and the Oslo FoB Index are making higher highs. This can be quickly resolved if the Oslo FoB Index can continue to rally. This is divergence signal is represented by a pink trendline on the RSI and Composite Index panes in the chart. The Composite Index has used its current displacement as support as resistance. The Composite Index does have a ways to go to get to the higher end of its historical displacement range.

The RSI is near the higher end of its historical displacement range. The RSI also has history of making displacement highs at its current displacement. It is also displaying bearish divergence with the Composite Index. I’ve left several of the old trendlines on the RSI pane to track for possible support areas besides the moving averages and historical displacement history. These trendlines, when drawn from divergence signals, usually are respected in future trading.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index had a remarkable week of trading. The Oslo FoB Index made a lower price low during the week, a higher price high and rallied 39.15% in one day. The next resistance zone of 116.96 NOK is within reach. I am seeing a bearish divergence signal in the Composite Index that could be a sign this move up is ahead of itself. The RSI is also at a very high displacement level given its historical range. When a asset moves 39.5% in one day, it is more than possible to retrace some of those gains before continuing higher. This large move up in price is also another sign the trend for the Oslo FoB Index is up. The Oslo FoB Index should continue to make higher price highs and higher price lows.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction