Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 19th April 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 22nd April 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 8.8% to 119.72 NOK during this week of trading. The Oslo FoB Index didn’t even slow down its decline at my suggested support zone around the 125 NOK area suggested in last week’s update.

The Oslo FoB Index is currently near the 119.53 NOK horizontal support zone. I reintroduced previous upward sloping green support lines that should offer some additional support for the Oslo FoB Index. I also updated the horizontal support zones for your review. The Oslo FoB Index is currently heading down following the brown dotted resistance line. Notice that the Oslo FoB Index is making lower lows and lower highs.

The Composite Index is at a displacement that has started rallies in the Oslo Fob Index. The last time the Composite Index tested this displacement was at the low from January 16th, 2024. The move up in the Oslo FoB Index that followed was significant. Follow the red dotted line on the Composite Index back in time on the chart and you will see how the Composite Index has behaved at this displacement within the available historical data. The Composite Index is near the lower end of its displacement history, suggesting the Composite Index needs to reset to a higher displacement.

The RSI is testing the displacement it has used for support since the start of the current rally. If the Oslo FoB Index is going to turn and make a higher high soon, the RSI needs to hold this displacement area. If not, it increases the probability that the seasonal highs for the Oslo FoB Index are in. This doesn’t mean the Oslo FoB Index can’t rally. However, the rally will more than likely be a corrective rally in a declining market if the RSI doesn’t hold its current displacement area.

The bullish view for the Oslo FoB Index is that the Oslo FoB Index is resting on support. I’m seeing divergence between the Composite Index vs the RSI, represented by the pink trendlines on the indicators. The Composite Index and the RSI also have some history of making turns at their current displacements. Notice the location of the Composite Index displacement today vs its last displacement low, the Composite Index is at a lower displacement while the Oslo FoB Index is at higher prices. The Composite Index is more oversold at higher prices, this is a bullish development.

The bearish view of the Oslo FoB Index is the Oslo Fob Index appears to make seasonal highs during this time of the year within the available history. Granted, there are only three years of available data but it’s three for three making highs in the late March to early May time frames. The current downtrend is following a steep downward angle, meaning it’s challenging to stand in front of a freight train.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction