Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 17th January 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 20th January 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 10.39% this week to finish the week at 95.50 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index appears to have tested the 93.38 NOK horizontal support line and a newly introduced grey uptrend line drawn from prior price high and low.

I updated the red horizontal resistance zones for your review. The downward momentum is losing its strength. During the week of January 3rd, 2025, the Oslo FoB Index fell 23.34%. This week the Index fell 10.39%. Yes, the Index still fell but it lost momentum, which is an important development. Looking back, it’s been an amazing month for the Oslo FoB Index.

The Composite Index is continuing to display the bullish signal mentioned in last week’s update. I mentioned also in last week’s update that the price objective from this signal is near the pink trendline that connects the last few years seasonal price highs. The Composite Index appears to be rallying back up to test the negative crossover of its moving averages. The Composite Index did make a lower displacement low in a bull market in December of 2021 and prices continued to make higher price highs and lows afterword. The same signal that the Composite Index is currently displaying was also shown during this time in the fall of 2021. My main concern with the Composite Index is the displacement level of the last low. It opens the door, slightly, that maybe the bull market for the Oslo FoB Index is coming to a quicker end than I originally thought. At this point, I’d give that a low probability.

The RSI’s displacement tested the lower limit of its bullish zone. The RSI needs to hold the 38 to 40 displacement level to continue to believe that the Oslo FoB index is in a bullish price trend. It will be interesting to see the displacement high where the next rally in the RSI ends. The RSI is now displaying the same bullish signal as the Composite Index. The RSI made a lower displacement low while the Oslo FoB Index made a higher price low. The RSI is more oversold at higher prices. The price objective from this signal is similar to the price objective from the Composite Index. Near the pink trendline that connects prior years seasonal price highs.

I included a weekly view of the Oslo FoB Index for your review. I updated the weekly support and resistance zones.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index continues to show bullish action. I would expect the price of the Index to rally from these price levels, but nothing is 100%. The recent displacement low in the Composite Index slightly opens up the door that the bull trend in prices might be ending sooner than expected but I believe this a low probability. The bullish signals displayed in the Composite Index and the RSI are usually strong signals and I’m expecting the prices to go higher. I still believe the seasonal price highs are not in, yet.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction