Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 16th February 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 19th February 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 8.43% in the last week of trading to close at 118.69 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index spent most of the week continuing to digest some of its recent gains.

One of the first things I noticed in the chart of the Oslo FoB Index is the green diagonal support line was breached and then retaken after a big price move on Friday February 16th 2024. The Oslo FoB Index held the important 109.98 NOK price area. The Oslo FoB Index is continuing to make higher price highs and higher price lows. Looking back at the available history of the Oslo FoB Index price history, it appears the Oslo FoB Index puts in its seasonal price highs from March to May of each year. I’d expect something similar this year but with only 3 ½ years of available history for the Oslo FoB Index, its challenging to say that this is a high probability event. I reintroduced the pink trend line that connects the price highs from April 2022 and March of 2023. This pink trendline is a possible final target for the Oslo FoB Index seasonal highs.

The Composite Index has made a lower low vs the Oslo FoB Index since February 8th 2024. You can see the moving averages on the Composite Index are now starting to converge and the Composite Index is testing the underside of its slow-moving average. Notice that the Composite Index has not made a higher high like the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI.I drew in a small green trendline on the indicators to help you see it. This is bearish divergence. I don’t think it is a big reason to be concerned currently but the signal is there.

The RSI is also continuing to make higher highs and higher lows. The RSI’s current displacement is above the usual highs the RSI would use during a bear market. The RSI moving averages should now start to diverge from its recent roping behaviour. The RSI has more recent history at its current displacement than the Composite Index. You can see the RSI has used this displacement for resistance in its recent history.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index continues to display mostly bullish behaviour. As usual, we do have some developments that challenge the bullish outlook. We are heading into a period of the year that has seen price highs in the Oslo FoB Index’s available price history. We are also seeing some bearish divergence between the Composite Index and the RSI.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction