Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 16th December 2022

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 19th December 2022

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index had a large pull back in price during the last week. Prices broke through black upsloping trendline and fell rapidly.

Prices appear to have found some support at the 73.80 NOK support zone. The next support zone is at 71.08 NOK. 71.08 NOK also has a price moving average near by and the upsloping green trend line offering additional support. The Composite Index tested the negative crossover of its moving averages and had a strong reaction. The Composite Index is currently diverging with price. Meaning the move down could be losing some momentum. Compare the baby blue trend line on price vs the green trend line on the Composite Index. The RSI also tested the negative crossover of its moving averages and had a strong reaction downward.

I included a weekly chart of the Oslo FoB Index in this week’s update. The Index price is testing the positive crossover of two price moving averages. I drew two green trend lines on the price chart. I usually have better luck using the price directly behind the low vs using the actual low price to find support. I drew both lines for your eye to compare. The Composite Index had a nice bounce off testing it’s moving averages crossover from early November 2022 and is now working its way lower looking for support. The main reason I include this chart is to have you see the RSI setup. The RSI is testing the positive crossover of its moving averages. The only other time we see this in the chart is in December of 2021 and a large move up in price followed. There is a limited amount of price history in the weekly time frame giving us less of a chance to the test the outcomes of this setup in the past but thought it was worth including in this week’s report.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction