Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 15th May 2026

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 18th May 2026

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 4.7% to end the week to 72.98 NOK. I made a few small changes to the price chart this week. I added the 76.13 NOK horizontal resistance line to the price chart.

I eliminated the trendlines on the Composite Index and the RSI panes to give it a fresh clean appearance.

The most recent Oslo FoB Index price high was made near 84.95 NOK. This is lower than the 99.24 NOK price high in March 2026. The Oslo FoB Index appears to be testing its prior price lows near the 72.89 NOK horizontal support zone. You know where I’m going, lower price lows and lower price highs, the definition of a downtrend. It will be interesting to see if the 72.82 NOK horizontal support zone is strong enough to end this swing down in prices. There is also a blue diagonal trendline below the current price that may offer some price support if tested. The historical seasonal price lows seem to form near the 65 NOK to 70 NOK area or near the mid to low 50’s NOK.

The Composite Index has retraced down near the lower end of its historical displacement range. The Composite Index does have more room to move lower but at some time it will need to reset to a higher displacement. The same is true for the RSI. I could argue that the Composite Index is diverging with the RSI, the Composite Index is above its most recent displacement low, the RSI is not. However, I would not assign a large probability to this signal, at this time. There is a good amount of history at the Composite Index’s current displacement. Going back and reviewing how the Composite Index acted previously at this displacement can give us clues about the future.

The RSI is testing a displacement it has used for support twice during 2026. It’s certainly possible it could use this displacement again. The RSI used has its current displacement as support many times during the 2025 bear market. The RSI is currently operating in a bearish displacement range, meaning the Oslo FoB Index is in a bear market. I could argue the RSI just made a small rally to test the negative crossover of its moving averages. This can be a very bearish setup in this situation. Look at the last time the RSI’s moving averages turned to a negative displacement, near March 31, 2026. The RSI made a small rally to test the crossover, the RSI touched the red trendline, and then the prices on the Oslo FoB Index made a very steep decline.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index continues to make lower price lows and lower price highs. The Oslo FoB Index is currently testing a horizontal support zone which could stop this current swing down. The Oslo FoB Index has found buyers in 2026 around the 72.82 NOK and 76.13 NOK price areas. Can this happen again? Absolutely, but it would be nice to see some obvious bullish divergence signals to raise the probability for this to occur.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction