Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 15th March 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 17th March 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index finished the week up 2.42% to finish the week at 86.52 NOK. This has been another week of very quiet price movement in the Oslo FoB Index.

The Oslo FoB Index appears to be holding the black upward sloping trendline and the 84.03 NOK horizontal support zone. I did make some very modest adjustments to the horizontal support and resistance levels with the Oslo FoB Index appearing to hold the 84.03 NOK support zone. The Oslo FoB Index next resistance zone is at 88.41 NOK. There is also the brown upward sloping trendline near this price that should offer additional resistance if tested. The first sign of trouble for the Oslo FoB Index would be breaking below the black upward sloping trendline.

The Composite Index’s displacement has moved from the lower end of its displacement range to the higher end of its displacement range while the Oslo FoB Index has made a small corresponding price move. This isn’t typically a bullish set up. The upward sloping purple trendline connects the Composite Index’s two most recent highs. Notice the Composite Index current displacement is at a lower Oslo FoB Index price than its prior displacement high. The Composite Index is more oversold at lower prices. Look at the previous rally in the Composite Index from mid-January to mid-February 2025. The Composite Index made a large move up while the prices didn’t move a corresponding amount. What happened next? The Composite Index also has history of making highs at this displacement within the available history of the data. It is also testing the underside of the downward sloping trendline that has stopped past rallies in the Index. If the Composite Index keeps moving higher, the next logical resistance area would be under the green downward sloping trendline.

An interesting side note, the two time targets mentioned in update from two weeks ago, the dates the trendlines crossed on the Composite Index, did work. They were not big turns in the Oslo FoB Index. The first time target hit the low displacement in the Composite Index and close to the price on the Oslo FoB Index. The second time target hit the day before the Oslo FoB Index started to move to higher prices.

The RSI is diverging with the Composite Index, this is represented by the downward sloping purple trendline on the RSI. The RSI displacement low this week was near 34. 34 is below the bullish RSI displacement range. The RSI is also testing the underside of its slow-moving average. The next logical resistance area for the RSI would be testing the underside of the downward pink sloping trendline.

In summary, the base building or consolidation continues in the Oslo FoB Index. The seasonal price highs that appear to happen in the spring each year is upon us, or we are within a month or two based on the available history of the data. My biggest concerns for the Oslo FoB Index are the displacement lows in the RSI and how far the Composite Index has rallied during this week of trading without a corresponding move in the Oslo FoB Index. I’m certainly not saying the Oslo FoB Index can’t rally in price, but the indicators will need to reset for a substantial move to happen.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction