Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 15th March 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 18th March 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 3.28% during this week’s trading. The Oslo FoB Index broke below the green dotted support trendline and is continuing to use the red trendline as resistance.

The Oslo FoB Index is now testing the 109.55 NOK horizontal resistance zone. It is also testing the price lows from February 8th and 15th, which found support at this price level. The Oslo FoB Index is also testing the underside of the red downtrend line. The Oslo FoB Index did respect the green upward sloping trendline this week that was drawn from connecting two previous highs and one low. There is a new short-term trend pattern in the Oslo FoB Index, lower lows and lower highs, the definition of a downtrend.

The Composite Index has moved down to the lower end of its historical displacement range, meaning it’s probably due for a bounce higher. The Composite Index’s current displacement has been used as resistance when the Composite Index making W bottoms. This can help with your timing if you were trading the Oslo FoB Index. The moving averages continue to diverge. I do see some bullish divergence in the Composite Index vs the RSI, however the signal is over a longer time period which weakens the signals strength.

The RSI is also testing the lower end of its bullish displacement range. The RSI bounced off the lows from October and November of 2023. If the RSI goes below these displacement lows, the seasonal rally in the Oslo FoB Index is likely over. The RSI held those displacement lows so it’s still possible for the Oslo FoB Index to rally to recent price highs. The moving averages on the RSI also continue to diverge. The big question is at what displacement will the RSI rally up to and then roll back down. This displacement observation will give many clues to the near term bullish or bearish status of the Oslo FoB Index.

In summary, if the Oslo FoB Index can stay above the green upward sloping trendline and break above the red downward sloping trendline, the Oslo FoB Index could test the recent high prices in the 120 NOK area. If the green upward sloping trendline is broken while the red downward sloping trendline is being respected, it raises the probability the seasonal highs in the Oslo FoB Index are in. The two indicators are at the lower end of their displacement ranges meaning both indicators can rally. The Oslo FoB Index sometime next week will break either the green, red trendline or both. As always, there is some bullish and bearish observations in the chart. I think the big, short-term clue will be which trendline breaks first, green or red, and that should give some clues as the short term direction of the Oslo FoB Index.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction