Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 15th December 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 18th December 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 5.2% in this week of trading.

The Oslo FoB Index is testing the 87.71 NOK horizontal resistance zone and the light blue down sloping trendline connecting the high trades from this spring. The light blue trendline should offer additional resistance. I drew in two parallel uptrend lines, green and light red, onto the price chart. These two parallel lines represent the trend channel the Oslo FoB Index is currently trading in. If the Oslo FoB Index breaks above or below one of these trendlines it should offer early clues to the strength or weakness of the current trend.

The Composite Index tested its slow-moving average and appears to be bouncing higher. Notice the bearish divergence in the Composite Index. The Composite Index is at a lower displacement while the Oslo FoB Index is at higher prices. This is a usually a sign the move higher is losing momentum. It would be encouraging to see the Composite Index break above this red down sloping trendline. The Composite Index does have recent history of using its current displacement as support and resistance.

The RSI tested its fast-moving average and bounced higher. The RSI is also making a lower high displacement while the Oslo FoB Index is making a higher high in price, bearish divergence. The RSI is also testing the highs it made in the secondary Oslo FoB price high in April of 2023. It would be concerning for the bulls to see the RSI rollover at this displacement.

I believe the Oslo FoB Index is still looking like it wants to go to higher prices. The bearish divergence between the Composite Index, RSI and the Oslo FoB Index is concerning. Keep an eye out for what happens in the next few trading sessions. Does the light blue trendline, the 87.71 NOK horizontal resistance zone and the light red upsloping trendline stop the advance or does the Oslo FoB Index advance through the overhead resistance? If the Oslo FoB Index does retreat, does the light green trendline offer support?

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction