Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 14th April 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 17th April 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index has been rallying since the beginning of April 2023. The Oslo FoB Index ran right through the 126.24 NOK and 128.09 NOK resistance zones.

These zones have offered strong resistance in the past. It appears the Oslo FoB Index is moving to challenge its all-time high prices. The 132.56 NOK horizontal resistance zone. You can see additional red dotted horizontal resistance zones for the Oslo FoB Index and a brown upsloping resistance line on the chart. The Composite Index has rallied and is approaching the upper end of its historical displacement range. The Composite Index has used this displacement as resistance several times in its history.

The RSI has also rallied and held the 40(ish) displacement area in the last correction. This is bullish action. The RSI has recent history of support and resistance at its current displacement. The bearish view on the Oslo FoB Index is the divergence between the RSI and Composite Index. This is represented by a black trend line drawn on both indicators going back to the middle of March 2023. It will be very interesting to see how the Oslo FoB Index reacts challenging its old price highs.

I included an additional chart this week for your review. I’ve spent some time trying to examine if the Miami FoB Index and the Oslo FoB Index are correlated to each other and if one market leads the other. It certainly looks like the two markets are correlated. Both Index’s trend in the same direction. The bar chart is the Oslo FoB Index and the brown line is the Miami FoB Index on the chart. Which market leads the other appears to change. It looks like the Oslo FoB Index is leading currently. If history repeat itself, I’d expect the Miami FoB Index to start to move back up in price.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction