Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 13th September 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 16th September 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 1.19% to finish the week at 74.21 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index is currently testing or modestly above the horizontal resistance zone at 73.31 NOK

The Oslo FoB Index is continuing to make higher highs and higher lows since the price low on August 30th, 2024. The Oslo FoB Index appears to be biding its time grinding sideways looking for a reason to rally to higher prices. The price projection target from the pink rectangles appears to be to have forecasted the low price accurately, for now. Yes, the Oslo FoB Index can certainly move to lower prices but the probability of this is weakening.

The Composite Index has moved up to the higher end of its historical range. Meaning, it will probably need to reset to a lower displacement at some point. The Composite Index does have history at this displacement. The moving averages now have a positive displacement. Look at how the Composite Index behaved in the fall of 2023, 2022, and 2021 near the Oslo FoB Index lows. How did the Composite Index behave during these times? Notice the timing signal that the positive crossover of the Composite Index’s moving averages provided. I’d say this observation provided an excellent entry point.

The RSI is getting to the upper end of the resistance displacement zone of what is uses for resistance in bear markets. The RSI did rally above its previous displacement high from July 2024. This is a bullish development. Like the Composite Index, notice the RSI moving averages have a positive displacement. Go back and look at the seasonal lows in 2023, 2022 and 2021. How did the RSI behave during these times? In my opinion, the RSI moving averages turning to a positive displacement was a very good signal to go long the Oslo FoB Index.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index appears to be winding up for a move to higher prices based on the observations in the three previous paragraphs. If the Oslo FoB Index was tradable, I’d think a person should be buying the Index near these prices. If a person could hold to the investment for five or six months and possibly sell the contracts near the seasonal highs in the spring of 2025. This would be a very good investment. Buy the Oslo FoB Index in the 74.xx NOK area or especially on any pullbacks, and possibly sell it in the 120 NOK to 140 NOK price area or near the pink trendline connecting the seasonal price highs in the available history. It is certainly possible that my bullish opinion is incorrect, and a person must use protective stop orders to protect themselves in case the Oslo FoB Index drops. Based on the seasonal turns in the available history, I would think any pull back will be bought quickly in this environment.

The main point of this update is IT’S TIME TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE OSLO FOB INDEX.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction