Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 13th December 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 16th December 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 4.5% to finish the week at 92.56 NOK. The pattern of making higher price highs and higher prices lows is continuing.

The Oslo FoB Index has broken above the 91.xx NOK resistance zone and appears to be heading to higher prices. The Oslo FoB Index is continuing to operate in the channel between the red and green dashed upward sloping trendlines. There is a confluence of resistance near the 105 NOK price area. The 95.27 NOK and 99.96 NOK areas are also resistance areas but not as strong as the 105 NOK price area.

The Composite Index is displaying bearish divergence with the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index is below it’s prior displacement high while the Oslo FoB Index is making higher price highs. I drew a green trendline on the Composite Index pane to assist you in seeing the divergence. I don’t believe that is a major challenge at the moment and could be rectified if the Oslo FoB Index continues to rally. The Composite Index does have a history of making displacement highs at its current displacement. The moving averages appear to be turning around starting to move higher which is a bullish signal.

The RSI is also displaying bearish divergence with the Oslo FoB Index for the same reason the Composite Index. The RSI also has history of making displacement highs at its current displacement. The RSI is continuing to operate in a bullish displacement zone or channel.

In summary, it appears the Oslo FoB Index is heading to higher prices. That does not mean it will go up in a straight line up. Like every market, the important thing to watch is the trend. Currently the trend is higher price highs and higher price lows. Where is the Oslo FoB Index going to put in its ultimate seasonal high? For the last three years it has made slightly higher highs each year. Shown by the pink trendline near the top of the chart. If the trend continues, this will project an ultimate price target in the 145 NOK to 150 NOK price area. Time will provide the answer.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction