Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 12th January 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 15th January 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index has experienced a volatile couple of weeks of trading. Since last Friday, the Oslo FoB Index declined 20.55.

The Oslo FoB Index appears to have found some price support near the 93.88 NOK support zone. I drew in some additional green trendlines under the current price that should offer some support if tested. The horizonal support and resistance zones are on the chart for your consideration.

The Composite Index has moved from high displacement to the lower end of its displacement range since the beginning of 2024. You can also see the moving averages on the Composite Index now have a negative displacement. Any rally in the Composite Index will rally up to test the negative crossover of its moving averages. The Composite Index has used its current displacement as support in its past. It used this displacement to restart the rally in January of 2023. Notice the Composite Index is at a lower displacement than its previous low while the Oslo FoB Index price made a higher low. The Composite Index is more oversold at higher prices. This is a bullish development. The same signal is also in the RSI. The same signal is also present in the Composite Index from the January 2023 low displacement to its prior low displacement in December of 2022.

The RSI is continuing to hold is bullish displacement range. The RSI needs to hold the 40-ish displacement area to maintain an upward price forecasting outlook for the Oslo FoB Index. The RSI does have a history of making turns at its current displacement. The moving averages on the RSI are also converging towards a negative crossover and the next rally up will test the negative crossover.

The Oslo FoB Index appears to be due for a rebound rally. However, it’s now less clear as to whether this would be a rally in an upcoming downward trending market or just a big pullback in a rising market. One of the clues will be where the RSI displacement bottoms when the market does rebound to higher prices.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction