Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 11th April 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 15th April 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index had an impressive rally during this week of trading to finish the week at 100.10 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index rallied 30.74% during the week.

I refreshed the support and resistance zones to include the strong rally during this week of trading. There is a confluence of resistance at 98.64 NOK and 104.04 NOK horizontal resistance zones, meaning these should be more challenging resistance zones. The purple trendline that connects recent seasonal price lows in the Oslo FoB Index seems to be a strong support zone. I added a black dotted trendline the connects the 2024 price highs. I also added a red upward sloping trendline that connects three recent price highs. The pink trendline that connects several seasonal prices highs has also been reintroduced. These trendlines should offer additional resistance if tested.

The Composite Index is at one of its three highest displacements in the history of the data. What has happened when the Composite Index was at this displacement? Each week I put a red dashed line on the current RSI and Composite Index levels for the reader to go back and look at how the indicator wants to behave at these displacements. How many times was this displacement the final high in the Oslo FoB Index? How many times was it an early sign the Oslo FoB Index needed to retrace some gains, but higher prices followed? This method can give probabilities for a trader to consider when entering a trade.

The RSI rallied to the 73 displacement level during this week of trading. This is above the historical bearish displacement range the Oslo FoB Index has used within the available data. I can only see one instance where the RSI was at this displacement or higher during a bear market. This happened in July 2021. Similar to the Composite Index, I moved the red dashed horizontal line to the RSI current displacement level. Go back and look at what has happened at this displacement in the past. It will give you more clues as to what will happen now and in the future.

In summary, the RSI for the Oslo FoB Index has gone from a bearish to a bullish displacement during this week of trading. It will be interesting to see what displacement the RSI will use as support during its next pull back. The indicators are extended and are trading near the higher end of their displacement ranges. They need to pull back. Based on how the Composite Index has behaved within the available data, the Oslo FoB Index should get a price retracement and then make higher price highs while the Composite Index makes a lower displacement high. This is also the time of the year when we’ve seen the seasonal price highs, within the available history of the data.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction