Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 10th January 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 13th January 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 23.34% during this week of trading to finish the week at 106.57 NOK. I mentioned in last weeks update that the price of the Oslo FoB Index has a tendency experience sharp pull backs after this type of extraordinary seasonal price advance from the December 18th to December 31rst 2024.

The Oslo FoB Index fell through three horizontal support zones without blinking and appears to be testing the topside of the red upsloping trendline. The Oslo FoB Index has a resistance zone very close to its current price. I included this zone for your review in this update. The next horizontal support zone under the current price is down around 104 NOK is supported by two different methods, making this zone stronger than other stand-alone support zones. There isn’t a horizontal support zone at the current price, however, there is the red upsloping trendline that could offer support for prices.

The Composite Index has moved down sharply to the lower end of its historical displacement range. There is a bullish signal developing in the Composite Index. Its current displacement is lower than its last previous displacement low, while the Oslo FoB Index is at a higher price. The Oslo FoB Index is more oversold at higher prices. This is a bullish divergence setup. IF, the Oslo FOB Index finds support at its current price and bounces higher, the price objective from this signal is around the pink trendline that connects the last few years seasonal high prices. The Composite Index also has history at this this displacement.

The RSI has also made a large move down in its displacement range. However, there is no bullish divergence signal like the Composite Index is displaying. The Composite Index and the RSI are diverging, which is a bullish signal. The RSI also has history at its current displacement. The green upsloping trendline has caught the declines in the RSI since June of 2024. The RSI continues to operate in a bullish displacement range.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index has had an exciting three weeks of trading. I’m seeing a bullish setup in the indicators and the Oslo FoB Index is testing the topside of the red upward sloping trendline that could offer support. There is not a horizontal support zone at current prices. The Oslo FoB Index has used this red trendline for support and resistance in the past, so it’s possible the Oslo FoB Index uses it again but it’s not a certainty. Can the Oslo FOB Index continue to move to lower prices, absolutely. If this is the case the Oslo FoB Index should stop near one of the green horizontal support zones.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction