Technical Analysis: LFEX DataSalmon Miami FoB ‘D’Trim Index, 17th March 2022

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 21st March 2022

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The prices on the Miami FoB continue to raise. If you look at the two indicators in the bottom panes, you can see both indicators have history at these displacements.

In the lower indicator, this displacement has led to two large declines in price in the past. The middle indicator saw an M formation with a much smaller price correction and then a continued move higher. You can also see divergence between the two indicators signaling that the upward momentum is weakening. It’s challenging to put a percentage to how likely it is to get a reaction at these displacements with only 2 events in the history.

I currently believe prices will need to consolidate or pull back mildly and then continue with the price move higher. Similar to what we see at this displacement in the middle indicator back in 2016. Notice that there isn’t any divergence in the indicators in 2016 like there is today. I also think the two indicators are heading towards one of their two moving averages and should bounce off that moving average and prices should move higher.

The base the Miami FoB prices recently broke above measures to $8.10. It’s likely we will see that price but there is no expectation as to how long it will take to get to $8.10.

I write this every week but it goes without saying that the two indictors are at high displacements vs the past history.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction